AlphaBet: Reinforcement Learning for LLM Event Forecasting Agents
In brief
- AlphaBet trains an LLM agent with RL to forecast events at multiple pre-resolution dates.
- Improves forecasting scores (Brier) by enhancing both evidence gathering and probability reporting.
- Standard GRPO normalization can harm performance with multi-class proper scoring rules.
AlphaBet is a reinforcement learning framework that trains an LLM-based agent to search for evidence, reason, and predict event probabilities across multiple pre-resolution dates. The approach significantly improves forecasting scores compared to traditional methods.
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