US pollsters in crisis ahead of 2026 midterms
In brief
- US pollsters have made repeated errors since 2016, consistently underestimating Donald Trump.
- Prediction markets and AI now rival traditional polls, with no proof of greater accuracy.
- The 2026 primaries revealed fabricated polls and unreliable adjustment methods.
American polling firms have been making repeated mistakes since 2016, consistently underestimating Donald Trump and misjudging the August 2026 primaries. Their methods for adjusting raw data and technical choices significantly shape results, without ensuring reliability.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, along with AI-generated responses, now rival traditional polls. These tools offer real-time forecasts, but their superiority remains unproven. The 2026 primaries exposed fabricated polls by a 21-year-old graduate, further eroding trust in surveys.
Pollsters also face public distrust and declining response rates, making representative samples harder to build. Statistical adjustments and emerging methods like "silicon sampling" struggle to restore confidence as the November 3, 2026 midterms approach.
What it changes for you
- Public SectorRepeated polling errors and competition from prediction markets undermine the credibility of electoral forecasts, affecting public trust and policymakers' decisions.
This summary gives you the essentials. The full article, its figures and quotes are on The Conversation France.
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